I’m Canadian, and judging from history things tend to go badly for countries that neighbour fascist countries with a powerful military. So yeah I want Old Joe to continue to be President.
But I’m not too worried about polling, they were off in 2016 because they people considered unlikely voters actually did vote, and they voted for Trump. So the statisticians compensated for this and they were much closer to the mark in 2020, but still somewhat under-counted Trump support. So they have to compensate some more. But my gut feeling is that a siginificant of the unlikely voters that turned out for Trump in the past two elections probably won’t turn out for him again. But statistics is a scientific thing, they can’t just mark Trump supporters as unlikely voters again because of a gut feeling. They have to follow the process and do the math without any gut feelings about it.
So… the polls about support for Trump aren’t reliable at all. So no point in worrying about them one way or another.
The real concern right now is how young people are pushed into some strange politics by social media. The Olds are going to vote the way they always do, and there’s less of them with each passing day. The kids are getting sucked into accelerationist doomerism so who knows what will happen there. Constant emotional manipulation on social media can send people down some dark paths. I used to think the kids are alright, but I’m not so sure anymore.
I’m Canadian, and judging from history things tend to go badly for countries that neighbour fascist countries with a powerful military. So yeah I want Old Joe to continue to be President.
But I’m not too worried about polling, they were off in 2016 because they people considered unlikely voters actually did vote, and they voted for Trump. So the statisticians compensated for this and they were much closer to the mark in 2020, but still somewhat under-counted Trump support. So they have to compensate some more. But my gut feeling is that a siginificant of the unlikely voters that turned out for Trump in the past two elections probably won’t turn out for him again. But statistics is a scientific thing, they can’t just mark Trump supporters as unlikely voters again because of a gut feeling. They have to follow the process and do the math without any gut feelings about it.
So… the polls about support for Trump aren’t reliable at all. So no point in worrying about them one way or another.
The real concern right now is how young people are pushed into some strange politics by social media. The Olds are going to vote the way they always do, and there’s less of them with each passing day. The kids are getting sucked into accelerationist doomerism so who knows what will happen there. Constant emotional manipulation on social media can send people down some dark paths. I used to think the kids are alright, but I’m not so sure anymore.