Prediction: The poll will not attempt to select for likely voters. It will simply look at all poll respondents.
Prediction: If I look at the actual results of a handful of the most recent downballot elections (special elections and other weird situations where we can actually find out whether the Democrats or the Republicans won), I will find at least a 2-to-1 majority of good news for the Democrats over the other kind
I’m actually in favor of the idea of taking the November election extremely seriously because Biden has some problems and it’s not at all assured that Trump won’t win and that would be a fuckin catastrophe for many different reasons. But I think misinformation in service of that goal, or attempts to represent support for Trump as “the will of the people,” isn’t a good thing.
BRB, checking my predictions
Edit: WTF, it’s even worse than my prediction. They’re constructing an elaborate Frankenstein’s monster of narratives out of individual data points from black voters of various age groupings, and their enthusiasm about politics in general, throwing in a quick little word about Gaza in there, without even pretending that they’re trying to answer the question “what’s the likely result in November, overall?”. Sorta reminds me of this comic.
They don’t even bother to attempt to say that the “downballot” thing from the headline has any connection to the poll, except in the very last paragraph where they throw in another weird little unproven narrative.
Edit: Okay, so to address the other half of my predictions – Democrats won 80% of the recent special elections, including a seat in Virginia where the D guy won by 50 percentage points. I could spin up a whole narrative from that, go into all these details about Trump’s criminal trials and kneecapping the RNC, and Biden’s wins on the economy, and sort of pretend that the picture I’m painting corresponds to a prediction about downballot races in November, and it wouldn’t mean a damn thing any more than this article does. It’s just argument by anecdote.
(Actually, it arguably would be a lot more valid than this article… but still argument by anecdote. Certainly, there’s reason to worry about November. This article isn’t it.)
OP doesn’t care. OP is here to push a narrative, nuance be damned.
Absolutely yes. And, continues to push some of their narratives regardless of how many times it’s demonstrated that they’re not accurate (and doesn’t seem to have much interest in even having the discussion of whether they’re accurate).
I think most of the troll farms have a certain quota of how many stories / comments you’re supposed to post per day, which seems to me like a pretty good explanation for the constant flood of slanted-in-one-particular-way stories that come out of OP. But who knows, maybe he’s just super passionate about posting political stuff but super uninterested in analyzing political stuff. You know, like most perfectly ordinary organic politics-posting people are.
Maybe you should be a mod and just delete all posts criticizing Biden? Would that be better for the sub?
Because you brought it up, I dusted off and did a little more tweaking on my pet project to make an LLM moderator that tries to detect bad-faith arguments regardless of viewpoint or overt-politeness level. I talked about it before. I’m moderately happy with how it’s able to function now.
Previous versions I hadn’t been happy with, but I just turned the current version loose on your user to see what it came up with, and it identified this thread and this thread as places where someone was very clearly saying one thing, and your responses were managing to engage in an argument with them without addressing the thing that they actually were saying… kind of like you did just now, when even a not-at-all sophisticated reader should be able to tell the massive difference between what I said, and “criticism of Biden should be banned,” and take note of the fact that you’re claiming I was saying the second thing, and so maybe don’t belong in a community that’s more for productive honest engagement even among contrasting views.
IDK, I can’t really make it live until I figure out how to do an mbin bot that can do moderation. But I think the hard part is working well enough to actually test it out for real once the bot piece can get done. So yes you might get your wish. 🙂
I’m not here to argue. I’m here to post and create discussion. Again, downvote if you don’t like the post. That’s what it’s there for.
Anyone can do what I do. I don’t write the articles. I just share them.
I literally couldn’t have said it better than this comment which I accidentally ran across while tweaking the LLM thing
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
You can block me if it really bothers you.
